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Business conjuncture in Bulgaria – November 2012


In November 2012 the total business climate indicator increases by 0.9 percentage points compared to its October level. A better business climate is registered in industry and service sector while in construction and retail trade there is certain deterioration of the business conjuncture.

Industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” increases by 3.5 percentage points in comparison with the previous month mainly due to the optimistic managers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. The inquiry reports an improvement of the production assurance with orders from abroad, which is accompanied by increased expectations about the activity of the enterprises over the next 3 months.

The main problems for the business development in the branch continue to be the uncertain economic environment and the insufficient domestic demand as in the last month their negative impact is strengthened.

The majority parts of the industrial entrepreneurs do not intend to increase selling prices in the branch over the next 3 months.

Construction. In November the composite indicator “business climate in construction” drops by 5.3 percentage points which is due to the increased pessimism in the managers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. As regards the employment in the branch the forecasts are also in a direction of a decrease.

The factors limiting with the most extent the activity in branch remain the uncertain economic environment and the financial problems, pointed out respectively by 74.3% and 50.9% of the enterprises.

The construction entrepreneurs’ expectations regarding the selling prices are they remain unchanged over the next 3 months.

Retail trade. The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” decreases by 1.2 percentage points in comparison with the previous month due to the worsening of the managers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. However in their prognosis about the volume of sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months retailers expressed optimism.

The uncertain economic environment continues to be the main factor limiting the activity of the enterprises, as in the last month a decrease of the negative impact of the factors “competition in the branch” and “demand” respectively by 8.2 and 10.5 percentage points is observed.

As regards the selling prices the managers foresee certain increase over the next 3 months.

Service sector. In November the composite indicator “business climate in service sector” increases by 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month due to more optimistic managers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. However their assessments and prognosis as regards the demand for services are more reserved.

The main factor limiting the development in the sector remains the uncertain economic environment. In the second and third places are “competition in the branch” and “insufficient demand” as their negative influence strengthen in comparison with the previous month.

Managers in the service sector do not foresee a change in the selling prices over the next 3 months

Source: National Statistical Institute