The January 2019 issue of the Monthly Report on Bulgarian Economy was released. It assesses the short-term dynamics of main economic indicators.
According to NSI flash estimates, increased by 3.1% yoy s.a. in Q4 GDP 2018. Final consumption, up by 5.3%, and gross fixed capital formation, up by 4%, were the drivers of the growth. Export increased by 0.8%, but was surpassed by import, up by 2.5%.
Short-term business indicators weakened in December, as industrial production and turnover as well as construction output declined on a year earlier, while retail sales growth slowed down. Business climate indicator went up in January 2019, supported by all sectors except for retail trade.
The unemployment rate went further down to 4.7% in Q4 2018, recording a new all-time low. Labour force participation rate lowered to 71.1%, but the value remained among the highest historical levels. In January 2019 registered unemployment followed a seasonal increase on a month earlier, up to 6.4%.
Average wage growth decelerated to 6.9% yoy in nominal terms in the last quarter of 2018. The HICP deflated real wage growth also slowed down to 3.8% yoy.
According to preliminary data, consumer prices remained unchanged on a month earlier in January 2019. The annual inflation rate decelerated further to 2.2% yoy in the month.
The current account balance improved in November on a year earlier, added up to the accumulated surplus and in January-November it reached 4.8% of projected GDP. Gross external debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61.1% at the end of the month.
Growth in credit to the private sector speeded up to 8.4% yoy in December. Among the segments, consumer loans also accelerated further, up by 17.7% yoy, in line with high consumption of households.
The surplus on the consolidated fiscal program at the end of 2018 reached BGN 0.1 bn (0.1% of projected GDP) according to preliminary monthly data on a cash basis. Total revenue increased by 12.3% yoy and the plan was overachieved by 3.7%. The expenditure, up by 14.6% yoy, almost equalled the plan. Total government debt, incl. guaranteed debt, decreased significantly on a year earlier to BGN 23.9 bn (22.1% of projected GDP), being 25.3% of GDP a year ago.
The entire document can be downloaded here