Bulgaria's economic growth is expected to accelerate before easing, while remaining above the EU and euro area averages, EY said in a statement received by BTA on October 22.
The company's economic analysis team forecasts growth of 2.9% in 2026, accelerating to 3.5% in 2027 before easing to 3% in 2028. The figures are from its October 2026 forecast.
Bulgaria's economic growth is expected to remain positive under all three scenarios considered for 2027: 3.5% in the baseline scenario, 2.9% in the adverse scenario and 3.7% in the optimistic scenario.
Growth Above the EU Average, but Higher Inflation
The baseline forecast puts Bulgaria's growth above the rates expected for the EU and euro area throughout 2026-2028. EY projects EU growth of 1.4% in 2026, 1.7% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. The corresponding forecasts for the euro area are 1%, 1.4% and 1.3%.
Average annual consumer price inflation in Bulgaria is forecast at 5.4% in 2026, 4.4% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028. Annual inflation in September 2026 was 5.6%. The analysis places Bulgaria among Southern European economies facing stronger price pressures and the impact of higher energy costs on tourism-related services.
Energy Risks Key to Inflation
EY’s baseline scenario projects average annual inflation in Bulgaria of 4.4% in 2027. Under an adverse scenario involving a prolonged energy shock, inflation could reach 7%. The optimistic scenario projects a decline to 3.1%. The analysis indicates that countries in Central and Eastern Europe are more sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices owing to energy’s greater weight in their consumer baskets and the amplifying effect of exchange-rate movements.