1. Output
According to the NSI business inquiries in September 2013 the industrial confidence indicator increases by 1.0 percentage points compared to August which is due to the more favourable managers’ expectations about the production activity over the next 3 months.
In July 2013 working day adjusted Industrial Production Index fall by 2.6% in comparison with the same month of 2012 (by preliminary data). A decrease was recorded in the mining and quarrying industry by 15.9% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 7.7%, while in the manufacturing an increase by 1.2% was seen.
According to the preliminary data the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices in the second quarter of 2013 amounted to BGN 19 398 million and the GDP per person amounted to BGN 2 666. At average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1.498526 for 1 US dollar, the GDP amounted to USD 12 945 million or USD 1 779 per person. GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 9 918 million or EUR 1 363 euro per person. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.2%.
2. Private consumption
In July 2013 the total consumer confidence indicator decreases by 2.1 percentage points compared to its level 3 months ago which is due to the decreased confidence of both urban and rural inhabitants - by 1.5 and 4.0 percentage points respectively. The consumers’ opinions about the development of the general economic situation in the country over the last 12 months and their expectations about the next 12 months are more pessimistic compared to the previous survey.
In July 2013 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles grew by 4.3% in comparison with the same month of the previous year. The turnover increased in the ‘Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods’ by 23.1%, in the ‘Other retail sale in non-specialised stores’ by 16.6%, in the ‘Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco’ by 9.0%, in the ‘Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet’ by 3.2%, in the ‘Retail sale of audio and video equipment; hardware, paints and glass; electrical household appliances’ by 1.6% and in the ‘Retail sale of automotive fuel’ by 1.1%. A decrease was registered in the ‘Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment’ by 0.8% and in the ‘Dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles’ by 0.4%.
In the second quarter of 2013 for individual consumption of the population were spent 73.8% of the produced GDP. The real decrease of the indicator was by 1.3% in comparison with the respective quarter of 2012 (according to the seasonally adjusted data).
3. Investment
The average capacity utilization in industry in July 2013 increases by 1.5 percentage points compared its April level and reaches 69.5%.
In the second quarter of 2013 the gross fixed capital formation increased in real terms (according to the seasonally adjusted data) by 1.4% in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that category in GDP is 21.3%.
4. Labour market
In the second quarter of 2013 the total number of employed persons (aged 15 years and over) was 2 940.2 thousand, representing 47.0% of population in the same age group. The share of employed persons was by 0.8 percentage points higher in comparison with the second quarter of 2012.
The number unemployed persons in the second quarter of 2013 was 437.3 thousand persons, and the unemployment rate - 12.9%. In comparison with the same quarter of the previous year the number of unemployed rose by 6.8% and the unemployment rate - by 0.6 percentage points.
According to the NSI business inquiries in September 2013 9.2% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity.
In June 2013 the average wage and salary was BGN 789 (by preliminary data) which is by 1.3% less than the previous month. In comparison with June 2012 the growth rate is 3.3%.
5. International transactions
According to the industrial managers’ assessments in September 2013 compared to August a decrease of the orders from abroad by 1.9 percentage points was registered.
In the January - July 2013 period the current account was positive and amounted to EUR 372.8 million (0.9% of the projected GDP for 2013), against a deficit of EUR 645.9 million (1.6% of GDP) in the January - July 2012 period.
The trade balance deficit for the January - July 2013 period amounted to EUR 1,462.8 million (3.6% of the projected GDP for 2013), against a deficit of EUR 2,346.2 million (5.9% of GDP) in the January - July 2012 period.
Exports of goods (FOB) in the January - July 2013 period totalled EUR 12,682.3 million, increasing by EUR 940.9 million (8.0%) year-on-year (from EUR 11,741.5 million). The exports for January - July 2012 period grew by 1.6% year-on-year. Imports of goods (FOB) for the January - July 2013 period totalled EUR 14,145.1 million, increasing by EUR 57.5 million (0.4%) against the January - July 2012 period (EUR 14,087.6 million). The imports in the January - July 2012 period increased by 11.7% on a year-on-year basis.
Direct investment abroad in the January - July 2013 period totalled EUR 54.5 million against EUR 126.6 million in the same period of 2012. Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for the January - July 2013 period totalled EUR 802.5 million (2% of the projected GDP for 2013), against EUR 1,197.9 million (3% of GDP) in the same period of 2012.
In the January - July 2013 period portfolio investment assets increased by EUR 610.2 million compared with a decrease of EUR 1.6 million in the same period of 2012. Portfolio investment liabilities dropped by EUR 346.7 million, against an increase of EUR 580.1 million in the same period of 2012.
The external balance (exports - imports of goods and services) in the second quarter of 2013 is negative. Imports and exports of goods and services increased by 2.0% and 4.5% respectively compared with the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
6. Prices
In August 2013 the harmonized index of consumer prices decreased by 0.7% compared to the same month of 2012. The highest increase was registered in “Restaurants and hotels” - by 4.4%.
The Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in July 2013 decreased by 1.8% compared to the same month of 2012. The domestic prices did not change in the manufacturing, while the prices fell in the mining and quarrying industry by 12.2% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 4.4%.
According to the conjuncture inquiry in September 2013 the majority of the industrial entrepreneurs do not expect change of the selling prices over the next 3 months.
7. Monetary and financial indicators
In August 2013 the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR decreased from 1.18 to 1.09% in comparison with the previous month, whereas the value in August 2012 was 1.69%.
In July 2013, the annual growth rate of broad money (aggregate M3) was 6.4% compared to 7.7% in June 2013. At the end of July 2013 M3 was BGN 63.775 billion (79.5% of the projected GDP for 2013) compared to BGN 62.987 billion (78.5% of GDP) in June 2013.
The volume of the loans to Non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs in July 2013 amounted to BGN 53.606 billion (66.8% of the projected GDP for 2013). The loans to Non-financial corporations increased by 1.4% annually (2.0% annual growth in June 2013) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 34.991 billion (43.6% of GDP). Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN 18.615 billion (23.2% of GDP) at the end of July 2013.
In August 2013 the exchange rate BGN against the US dollar decreases in comparison with the previous month from 1.50 to 1.47.
Source: National Statistical Institute