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Business conjuncture in Bulgaria, October 2013


In October 2013 the total business climate indicator decreases by 2.1 percentage points compared to its level from the previous month due to the more unfavourable business climate in industry and service sector.

Industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” decreases by 4.6 percentage points in comparison with September which is due to the more reserved managers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. At the same time the present production activity is assessed as slightly improved, but the expectations about the activity over the next 3 months are more unfavourable.

The average capacity utilization in October reaches 69.8% as regards the expected demand over the next months is foreseen a surplus of capacity.

The uncertain economic environment and insufficient domestic demand remain the factors limiting with the most extend activity of the enterprises in the branch.

As regards the selling prices the industry entrepreneurs’ expectations are for preservation of their level over the next 3 months.

Construction. In October the composite indicator “business climate in construction” remains approximately to its level of the previous month. According to managers the present construction activity is decreased compared to the previous month as their forecasts over the next 3 months are also more unfavourable. At the same time an increase of the number of clients with delay in payments is registered.

In October the production assurance with orders is preserved and is assessed to be 4.8 months. However the construction entrepreneurs’ expectations with regard to the new orders over the next 6 months are more pessimistic. 

The main obstacle for the business development in the branch remains the uncertain economic environment, followed by the financial problems, competition in the branch and insufficient demand.

As regards the selling prices in the branch the majority of the managers expected them to remain unchanged over the next 3 months.

Retail trade. The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” increases by 1.6 percentage points compared to September due to the improved retailers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. However, their prognoses about the volume of sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months are more reserved.

The uncertain economic environment, insufficient demand and competition in the branch remain the main obstacles for the business development in the branch, as the last inquiry registered strengthen of their negative influence.

The prevailing retailers’ expectations are for preservation of the selling prices over the next 3 months.

Service sector. In October the composite indicator “business climate in service sector” decreases by 3.3 percentage points which is due to shifting of the managers’ assessments about the business situation of the enterprises from improving towards preserving “the same”. Concerning the demand for services the present tendency is assessed as improved, but the expectations over the next 3 months are more unfavourable.

The uncertain economic environment, competition in the branch and insufficient demand continue to be the main factors, limiting the activity in the branch as in October a decrease of their unfavourable impact is observed.

As regards the selling prices in the service sector the inquiry reports certain expectations for an increase over the next 3 months.

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