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Business Conjuncture in Bulgaria, December 2012


The published data of National Statistical Institute shows that in December 2012 the total business climate indicator increases by 0.7 percentage points compared to its level from the previous month which is due to the improved business conjuncture in construction and retail trade.

Industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” remains approximately its November level. The inquiry registers certain managers’ optimism about the present business situation of the enterprises and present production activity, but their expectations over the next 3 months are more moderate.

The main factors limiting the development of the business in the branch are uncertain economic environment and insufficient domestic demand pointed out by 55.2% and 42.8% of the industrial enterprises respectively.

As regards selling prices the expectations are for preservation of their level over the next 3 months.

Construction. In December the composite indicator “business climate in construction” increasesby 3.6 percentage points mainly due to the more optimistic construction entrepreneurs’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. However with regard to the number of clients with delay in payments the assessments are for an increase.

The uncertain economic environment remain the factor limiting with the most extend the activity in the branch as the last inquiry reported also strengthening the negative influence of the factors “financial problems” and “competition in the branch”.

The majority of construction entrepreneurs’ expectations are the selling prices remain unchanged over the next 3 months.

Retail trade. The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” increases by 6.4 percentage points in comparison with the previous month which is due to the improved managers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. However with regard to the sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months the retailers’ expectations are more reserved.

The main factors limiting the activity of the enterprises remain the uncertain economic environment, competition in the branch and insufficient demand.

As regards selling prices the managers do not foresee an increase over the next 3 months.

Service sector. In December the composite indicator “business climate in service sector” decreases by 5.9 percentage points. Managers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises are worsened. Their prognoses about the demand for services over the next 3 months are also more unfavourable.

The uncertain economic environment is the most serious factor limiting the activity in the sector, followed by the competition in the branch and the insufficient demand. At the same time in the last month the negative influence of the factor “weakness in economic legislation” is increased (by 6.3 percentage points).

Concerning the selling prices in the service sector the inquiry registers certain expectations for an increase over the next 3 months.

Source: National Statistical Institute