1. Output
According to the NSI business inquiries in December 2012 the industrial confidence indicator kept its level from the previous month.
In October 2012 working day adjusted Industrial Production Index fell by 4.1% as compared to the respective month of 2011 (by preliminary data). A decrease was recorded in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply - by 11.9% and in the manufacturing - by 2.1%, while in the mining and quarrying industry an increase by 1.9% was seen.
According to the preliminary data, the Gross Domestic Product1 (GDP) in the third quarter of 2012 amounted to BGN 21 734 million at current prices and GDP per person amounted to BGN 2 977.
At average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1.56497 for 1US dollar, the GDP amounted to USD 13 888 million or USD 1 902 per person. GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 11 112 million or EUR 1 522 per person. In comparison with the third quarter of 2011 the real volume of GDP increased by 0.5% according to the seasonally adjusted data
2. Private consumption
In October 2012 the total consumer confidence indicator decreased by 4.3 percentage points compared to its level 3 months ago which is due to the decreased confidence of both urban and rural inhabitants by 4.6 and 4.0 percentage points respectively. As a whole the October survey shows an increase of the pessimism in consumers’ assessments and expectations in comparison with July.
In October 2012 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles declined by 4.3% in comparison with the same month of the previous year. An increase was observed in the ‘Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet’ by 14.0% and in the ‘Retail sale of automotive fuel’ by 4.2%. A drop in the turnover was registered in the ‘Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods’ by 16.1%, in the ‘Retail sale of audio and video equipment; hardware, paints and glass; electrical household appliances’ by 12.3% and in the ‘Other retail sale in non-specialised stores’ by 9.8%, in the ‘Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment’ by 4.4%, in the ‘Dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles’ by 3.7% and in the ‘Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco’ by 2.4%.
In the third quarter of 201263.6% of the produced GDP were spent on individual consumption of the population. The real increase of the indicator was by 3.0% in comparison with the respective quarter of 2011 (according to the seasonally adjusted data).
3. Investment
The average capacity utilization in industry from July to October 2012 decreased by 1.8 percentage points and it reached 69.5%.
In the third quarter of 2012 the gross fixed capital formation increased in real terms (according to the seasonally adjusted data) by 1.0% in comparison with the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that category in GDP is 16.7%.
4. Labour market
In the third quarter of 2012 the total number of employed persons (aged 15 years and over) was 3 017.1 thousand, representing 47.9% of population in the same age group. In comparison with the same quarter of 2011 the number of employed declined by 19.4 thousand, and their relative share was by 0.2 percentage points higher.
The number of unemployed persons in the third quarter of 2012 was 393.2 thousand persons, and the unemployment rate - 11.5%. In comparison with the same quarter of 2011 the number of unemployed rose by 13.5% and the unemployment rate - by 1.3 percentage points.
5. International transactions
According to the industrial managers’ assessments in December 2012 compared to November a reduction of the orders from abroad by 7.5 percentage points was registered.
In the period January - October 2012 the current account was negative and amounted to EUR 31.5 million (0.1% of the predicted GDP for 2012), against a surplus of EUR 738.2 million (1.9% of GDP) in the period January - October 2011.
The trade balance deficit for the period January - October 2012 amounted to EUR 3 097.2 million (7.8% of the projected GDP for 2012), against a deficit of EUR 1 499.8 million (3.9 of GDP) in the same period of 2011.
Exports of goods (FOB) in the period January - October 2012 totalled EUR 17 287.9 million, growing by EUR 381.9 million (2.3%) year-on-year (from
EUR 16 906 million). The exports in January - October 2011 increased by 33% year-on-year.
Imports (FOB) in the period January - October 2012 amounted to EUR 20 385.1 million, growing by EUR 1 979.3 million against January - October 2011 (EUR 18 405.8 million). On a year-on-year basis imports increased by 10.8% in January - October 2012 and by 25.7% in January - October 2011.
Direct investment abroad in the period January - October 2012 totalled EUR 126.2 million against EUR 142.3 million in the same period of 2011.
Foreign direct investment in the country in the period January - October 2012 totalled EUR 1 335.7 million (3.4% of the projected GDP for 2012), against EUR 1 080.8 million (2.8% of GDP) in the same period of 2011.
In the period January - October 2012 portfolio investment assets increased by EUR 297.8 million compared to a decrease of EUR 7.9 million in the same period of 2011. Portfolio investment liabilities grew by EUR 534.3 million, compared to a decline of EUR 286.1 million in the same period of 2011.
The external balance (exports-imports) in the third quarter of 2012 was positive amounting to BGN 1 837 million. Imports of goods and services rose by 4.0% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and the exports of goods and services increased by 3.3%.
6. Prices
In November 2012 the harmonized index of consumer prices increased by 2.7% compared to the same month of 2011. A rise of prices was observed in all groups, with the exception of “Leisure time, recreational and cultural services”, “Clothing and footwear” and “Communication”. The highest increase was registered in “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels” - by 9.4%.
The Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in October 2012 grew by 6.9% compared to the same month of 2011. The domestic prices increased in the mining and quarrying industry by 7.2%, in the manufacturing by 6.1% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 8.8%.
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* The key indicators are elaborated in accordance with the euro zone indicators system. The analytical document is quarterly updated. Source of the data are the NSI statistical surveys and BNB data.
Source: National Statistical Institute