Output
According to the NSI business inquiries in March 2022, the industrial confidence indicator decreased by 3.6 percentage points in comparison with February 2022.
In January 2022, the calendar adjusted Industrial Production Index rose by 16.5% in comparison with the same month of 2021 (preliminary data). On an annual basis in January 2022, the Industrial Production Index calculated from calendar day adjusted data rose in the mining and quarrying industry by 53.6%, in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 29.6% and in manufacturing by 11.0%.
In January 2022, the calendar adjusted data showed an increase of 2.2% in construction production, compared to the same month of 2021 (preliminary data). On an annual basis in January 2022, the increase in production in construction, calculated from calendar adjusted data, was determined by the positive rate in building construction, where the growth was by 2.9% and in civil engineering - by 1.3%.
According to the preliminary data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices for the fourth quarter of 2021 is 38 418 million BGN. The GDP per person is 5 587 BGN. The GDP is 22 470 million USD and 3 267 USD per person using the average quarter exchange rate of 1.709779 BGN for 1 USD. In Euro terms, GDP reaches 19 643 million EUR in total and 2 856 EUR per person. Seasonally adjusted data show an increase of 4.7% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year and an increase of 1.0% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
Private consumption
In January 2022, the total consumer confidence indicator increases by 1.7 percentage points in comparison with October 2021. For the urban population, the increase is 0.7 percentage points and for the rural population - 4.1 percentage points. The consumers’ total assessment of the development of the economic situation in the country over the last 12 months preserves approximately its level from the previous survey . However, as regards the expectations over the next 12 months, the inquiry reported a reduction in the pessimism in the opinions of both urban and rural populations, as a result of which the total balance indicator increases by 5.7 percentage points.
In January 2022, the calendar adjusted turnover in “Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles” grew by 11.1% in comparison with the same month of 2021. In January 2022, compared to the same month of 2021, a rise in turnover was reported in all major groups: “Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores” (17.2%), “Retail sale of non-food products (except fuel)” (14.8%) and “Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco” (3.9%).
During the fourth quarter of 2021, 70.1% of GDP was spent on individual consumption. According to seasonally adjusted data , the indicator increases by 8.1% in real terms compared to the respective quarter of 2020.
Investment
In the period October 2021 - January 2022, the average capacity utilization in industry increased by 0.8 percentage points and it reached 75.0%.
The relative share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 18.3%. According to seasonally adjusted data , that indicator decreases by 13.0% in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year.
Labour market
In the fourth quarter of 2021, there were 3 080.5 thousand employed persons, 1 647.5 thousand men and 1 432.9 thousand women. The employment rate was 52.6% (58.8% for men and 46.9% for women).
In the fourth quarter of 2021, there were 146.7 thousand unemployed persons, of whom 84.2 thousand (57.4%) men and 62.5 thousand (42.6%) women. The unemployment rate was 4.5%, 4.9% for men and 4.2% for women.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the total hourly labour cost (preliminary data) rose by 12.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The total hourly labour cost increased by 11.8% in industry, 11.4% in services and 14.4% in construction.
According to the NSI business inquiries in March 2022, 25.5% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity.
In December 2021, the average wage and salary was BGN 1 676 and increased by 6.1% compared to the previous month and rose by 14.2% compared to December 2020.
International transactions
In March 2022, the industrial managers’ assessments of the production assurance with orders from abroad were more favourable in comparison with February 2022.
The current account was negative, amounting to EUR 433 million (0.6% of GDP) , in January 2022, compared with a deficit of EUR 39.2 million (0.1% of GDP) in January 2021.
In January 2022, the trade balance recorded a deficit of EUR 581.8 million (0.8% of GDP) in January 2022, compared with a deficit of EUR 82.4 million (0.1% of GDP) in January 2021.
Exports of goods totalled EUR 3,197.2 million (4.3% of GDP) in January 2022, growing by EUR 817.3 million (34.3%) from January 2021 (EUR 2 379.9 million, 3.5% of GDP) .
In January 2021, exports dropped by 4.3% year-on-year. Imports of goods amounted to EUR 3 779 million (5.0% of GDP) in January 2022, growing by EUR 1 316.7 million (53.5%) from January 2021 (EUR 2 462.2 million, 3.6% of GDP) . In January 2021, imports dropped by 4.3% year-on-year.
The direct investment abroad grew by EUR 40.1 million in January 2022, compared with an increase of EUR 28.9 million in January 2021. In January 2022, the net direct investment1 was negative, amounting to EUR 148.3 million (0.2% of GDP) , compared with a negative balance of EUR 27 million (0.04% of GDP) in January 2021.
The foreign direct investment in Bulgaria (under the directional principle) grew by EUR 188.4 million in January 2022 according to preliminary data, compared with an increase of EUR 55.9 million in January 2021. The balance on portfolio investment was positive amounting to EUR 209.9 million (0.3% of GDP) , compared with a positive balance of EUR 626 million (0.9% of GDP) in January 2021. Portfolio investment - assets grew by EUR 274.2 million (0.4% of GDP) , compared with an increase of EUR 646.3 million (1.0% of GDP) in January 2021. Portfolio investment - liabilities grew by EUR 64.3 million (0.1% of GDP) , compared with an increase of EUR 20.3 million (0.03% of GDP) in January 2021.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the external balance (exports - imports of goods and services) was negative. Exports of goods and services increased by 13.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, according to seasonally adjusted data. Imports of goods and services increased by 12.1% (according to seasonally adjusted data) .