The latest issue of the Monthly Report on Bulgarian Economy was released

The November 2018 issue of the Monthly Report on Bulgarian Economy was released. It assesses the short-term dynamics of main economic indicators. The publication is prepared by the Economic and Financial Policy Department at the Ministry of Finance.

GDP growth in Q3 2017 reached 2.7% yoy (not seas. adj.). The growth was driven by domestic demand, while net export had a negative contribution. On the supply side, GVA increased by 2.8% yoy, with major contribution coming from services.

Short-term business statistics reported strong performance in October, as both industrial and construction production returned to growth, and the pace of increase in industrial and retail sales accelerated. The business climate indicator improved in November due to expectations for a more favourable business situation in industry, retail and services in the next six months. 

Employment went down by 0.9% yoy in Q3 driven by dynamics in agriculture, while employment in industry and services kept increasing. Real productivity growth accelerated to 3.7% and the increase in nominal unit labour cost slowed down to 1.4% yoy. In November, registered unemployment edged up to 6%.

Consumer prices, as measured by the HICP, declined by 0.3% mom in November, driven almost entirely by lower fuel prices. Annual rate of inflation slowed down to 3%. Core inflation lost some momentum as well, down to 2.4% yoy driven by declining prices of nonenergy industrial goods and lower inflation of processed food.

The positive current account value in September added up to the accumulated surplus and in the nine months of 2018 it reached 3.8% of projected GDP. Gross external debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 61% at the end of the month.

For the ten months of 2018, the balance on the consolidated fiscal program was positive, reaching BGN 2.8 bn (2.6% of projected GDP) at end-October. The surplus resulted from higher revenue over expenditure on national budget.

The entire document can be downloaded here.