The March 2019 issue of the Monthly Report on Bulgarian Economy was released. It assesses the short-term dynamics of main economic indicators.
Short-term business statistics reported strong performance in February as growth in industrial production and sales as well as construction output speeded up. The overall business climate indicator increased in March due to better expectations in construction, retail trade and services. The consumer confidence indicator followed the same pattern supported by improved assessment of the current financial situation and more favourable expectations for the future development.
In March the registered unemployment rate decreased further to 5.9%. The downward trend on a month earlier was due to the higher outflow of unemployment than inflow.
Consumer prices increased by 0.2% mom in March with energy goods contributing the most to the rise in the headline rate. The annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.8% yoy, due to higher food and energy prices. Nevertheless, the core inflation maintained a stable rate of increase of 2.2% yoy.
In January the overall current account balance came in positive at 0.2% of projected GDP. Export of goods increased by 8.4% yoy, while import rose by 1.7%, which led to an improvement in the trade balance. Gross external debt stood at 56.4% of GDP, declining on a monthly and an annual basis.
Credit to the private sector kept accelerating in February, up by 8.7% yoy. The growth was supported by both corporate and household segments. Consumer loans and loans for house purchases increased at a double digit rate of 17.7 and 11.3% yoy, respectively.
According to monthly data on a cash basis, the budget balance on the consolidated fiscal programme for the first two months of 2019 was positive, amounting to BGN 1.5 billion (1.3% of projected GDP). The surplus resulted from higher revenues over expenditure both on the national budget (1.1% of GDP) and the EU funds account (0.2% of GDP).
The entire document can be downloaded here.