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Business Conjuncture, July 2014


Industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” reduces by 2.1 percentage points in comparison with June which is due to the worsening managers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. The inquiry also reports a decrease of production assurance with orders which is accompanied with more unafourable expectations about the activity of the enterprises over the next 3 months (Annex, Figure 3). As regards the personnel certain expectations for its reduction over the next 3 months are registered.
The average capacity utilization in July reaches 74.2%. The enterprises report a surplus of capacity with regard to the expected demand over the next months, but this surplus decreased over the last 3 months.
The main obstacles for the business’ development in the branch remain the uncertain economic environment and insufficient domestic demand, as in the last month strengthen of their negative influence is observed .
Concerning the selling prices in industry the prevailing managers’ expectations are for preservation of their level over the next 3 months (Annex, Figure 6).

Construction. In July the composite indicator “business climate in construction” decreases by 3.0 percentage points (Annex, Figure 7) due to the more reserved construction entrepreneurs’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. The production is assurance with contracts for 4.8 months by registering a decrease of 0.4 months compared to the assessment from April. At the same time the expectations about new orders over the next 6 months are also more unfavourable.
The uncertain economic environment continues to be the main factor limiting the activity of the enterprises in the branch as the last inquiry reports an increase of its unfavourable impact. In the second and third place are “competition in the branch” and “financial problems”.
As regards the selling prices in construction the majority of the managers expect them to remain unchanged over the next 3 months.

Retail trade. The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” drops by 6.2 compared to the previous month (Annex, Figure 11) which is due to the more unfavourable retailers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. However their forecasts concerning the volume of sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months remain optimistic although more reserved in comparison with June.

The uncertain economic environment, competition in the branch and insufficient demand remain the main obstacles for the activity development in the branch, as in the last month strengthen of the negative impact of the first two factors is observed.
The retailers’ expectations about the selling prices in the branch are for preservation of their level over the next 3 months.

Service sector. In July the composite indicator “business climate in service sector” decreases by 2.8  percentage points (Annex, Figure 15) due to the shifting of the managers’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months from “better” towards preserving “the same” . As regards the demand for services the present tendency is assessed as improved, but the expectations over the next 3 months are more unfavorable.
The main factors limiting the activity in the branch continue to be connected with the uncertain economic environment and competition in the branch.
Concerning the selling prices the managers’ expectations are them to remain unchanged over the next 3 months.
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