Economic and social development in Bulgaria remains at "two-speeds." Economic activity, investment, and human resources are concentrated in a limited number of strong urban centers that create higher added value, rely on better functioning labor markets, and have better infrastructure, according to one of conclusions of the annual edition of the Institute for Market Economics' (IME) Regional Profiles: Development Indicators – 2025 study, a summary of which was circulated by the IME here on 12 November.
This concentration provides a stable foundation for growth among the leaders, but leaves a large group of regions with systemic constraints – lower incomes, weaker business dynamics and high unemployment, low employment and skills shortages in the workforce, the study notes.
It summarizes the current statistics for this country's 28 regions and tracks their development across a wide range of topics – from the economy, labor market, and investment to infrastructure, local finances, demographics, education, healthcare, security, the environment, culture, and tourism. The indicators mainly cover 2024, with some sections also including data for 2025, which allows for reliable comparability between regions and tracking of trends over time, according to the IME.
The comprehensive assessments of economic development show a clear division, the authors of the study point out, noting that the "very good" group includes regions with a high share of industry and services and strong investment activity; Gabrovo (central Bulgaria) is also among the standouts, with its concentrated industrial base supporting a high standard of living. Ruse Region (North Bulgaria) and Sofia Region have achieved "good" economic development, remaining close behind the leaders, while nine regions are in the "unsatisfactory" group, which, according to the IME, is a sign of a limited economic base and lower quality of jobs.
The investment geography continues to be a leading factor for divergence, the study points out. The current edition reports extremely uneven investment activity: half of the regions are rated "weak" in the Investments and Companies category, and another seven are rated "unsatisfactory." There are also large differences in connections with foreign markets: the share of export revenues reaches about half of the turnover in the most export-oriented regions (Sofia Region, Ruse Region), while in the weaker regions it remains at about one-eighth – a gap that reinforces differences in productivity and income, according to the IME.
According to the study's authors, the labour market confirms this asymmetry. The northwestern regions of Vidin and Montana remain at the bottom with a vulnerable employment structure and a distinctly less favorable educational profile of the workforce. In several areas, the share of people with primary and lower education reaches one third, which limits the ability to fill new, more skilled jobs. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the capital city of Sofia and Varna (on the Black Sea) stand out with a high proportion of the population with higher education, higher employment, and therefore higher incomes.
As expected, there has been no major change in infrastructure over the year, but it remains different in terms of quality and access, according to the study. In 2025, only Montana receives a "poor" rating, while the capital and Varna receive a "very good" rating. The density of the road network remains almost unchanged; the railway network is most developed in the capital, while Smolyan (South Bulgaria) remains without railway lines. This reinforces the differences in access to services and markets, which are particularly visible in the indicators for North Bulgaria.
In terms of local finances, the data show limited fiscal autonomy for a large part of the municipalities: their own revenues cover only a quarter of their total expenditures. At the same time, the absorption of funds under operational programs remains an important source of investment in public infrastructure and services, which contributes to reducing some of the territorial disparities, but without targeted efforts to attract private investment, the trajectory of the lagging regions is not improving.
According to the IME, social development is even more polarized: six regions receive a "very good" rating, with the capital, Varna, Burgas, and Plovdiv among the leaders in almost all components—from demographics and healthcare to education and tourism. A high overall score can also be achieved through strong performance in several key areas – examples include Smolyan (education and environment) and the southwestern region of Blagoevgrad (education and demographics). At the bottom are regions with an unfavorable demographic trajectory and weaker results in education and healthcare.
The study points out that demographics remain a decisive factor. Following a short-lived easing in 2023, natural growth deteriorated in 24 of the 28 regions in 2024, with large differences between regions: the capital is close to a balance between birth and death rates, while in Vidin the difference is many times higher. The positive migration that began in 2020 continues, but is concentrated in the more developed areas – Kardzhali, Varna, Burgas, and Sofia – while in most other areas the net inflow is weakening, suggesting a lasting shift of people towards the leading centers.
Differences in human capital and access to services are also clearly visible in education and healthcare, according to the study. The results of national external assessments and state matriculation exams vary significantly between regions, and access to primary healthcare and life expectancy also show significant differences. This suggests that policies for quality education and health services in weaker regions are key to limiting social polarization, the authors of the study comment.