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Business conjuncture, September 2021


In September 2021, the total business climate indicator decreases by 2.4 percentage points in comparison with August. A reduction of the indicator is observed in industry, construction and retail trade, and in service sector preserves approximately its level from the previous month.

Industry. The composite indicator “business climate in industry” decreases by 0.9 percentage points which is due to the more reserved industrial entrepreneurs’ assessments about the present business situation of the enterprises.

According to them, the present production activity is slightly reduced, as their forecasts about the activity over the next 3 months are also unfavourable. The most serious difficulties for the activity remain connected with the uncertain economic environment, shortage of labour and insufficient domestic demand pointed out respectively by 51.3%, 24.9% and 24.0% of the enterprises. Concerning the selling prices in industry, 15.6% of the managers continue to expect them to increase over the next 3 months.

Construction. In September, the composite indicator “business climate in construction” drops by 7.3 percentage points as a result of the more pessimistic construction entrepreneurs’ assessments and expectation about the business situation of the enterprises. Their opinions about the new orders inflow over the last month are also negative, which is accompanied with slight worsened expectations about the construction activity over the next 3 months. The main problem for the business development continues to be the uncertain economic environment, followed by the shortage of labour and costs of materials . In comparison with August, the share of the managers who forecast the selling prices to increase over the next 3 months is preserved.

Retail trade. The composite indicator “business climate in retail trade” decreases by 2.6 percentage points  which is due to the more unfavourable retailers’ assessments and expectations about the business situation of the enterprises. The inquiry also registers a pessimism in their opinions about both the volume of sales and the orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months.

The most serious difficulty for the activity of the enterprises remain the uncertain economic environment, as in the last month an increase of its negative influence is observed. In the second and third place are the insufficient demand and competition in the branch. The retailers’ assessments about the selling prices in the last month are in the direction of increase, as 23.4% of the managers foresee them continue to rise over the next 3 months.

Service sector. In September, the composite indicator ‘business climate in service sector’ preserves approximately its August level . The managers’ assessments about the present demand for services are shifting to the more moderate opinions, as their expectations over the next 3 months are unfavourable. The uncertain economic environment and competition in the branch continue to limit with most extent the business development, as compared to the previous month a strengthening of the negative impact of the factor “others” is registered. Concerning the selling prices in the service sector, the inquiry reports certain expectation for an increase over the next 3 months.