With a rating action of 27 March 2026 the international credit agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Bulgaria’s long-term foreign currency rating ‘BBB+’ with a stable outlook.
The ratings reflect Bulgaria’s strong external and public finance balance sheets and a credible policy framework underpinned by EU and eurozone membership. At the same time unstable coalition governments and frequent elections have hindered progress in reform implementation. The rating agency points out that per-capita income is likely to remain low relative to higher-rated peers at current growth rates.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch’s expectation that renewed domestic political uncertainty and external geopolitical risks will not derail Bulgaria’s solid economic growth nor lead to a build-up of macroeconomic, fiscal or external imbalances. External finances remain a rating strength, although the current account deficit has widened.
Factors that could lead to downgrade are build-up of macroeconomic imbalances or weaker economic growth, for example, as a result of adverse political developments that weigh on reform implementation; a significant increase in general government debt/GDP over the medium term due, for example, due to a looser fiscal stance or weaker economic performance.
A future upgrade could be expected with a sustained improvement in political stability and institutional capacity that supports reform implementation and convergence of structural indicators towards those of higher-rated peers. A reduction in macroeconomic imbalances and stronger growth supported by implementation of structural reforms or effective use of EU funds could have a positive influence on the ratings.