The Business Barometer 2026 survey, which was presented at the University of National and World Economy (UNWE) on March 31, registered a deterioration of the institutional environment for the second year in a row, in light of business assessments of the role and function of the State in areas within its core prerogatives, such as taxation, social security and the labour market.
The survey was presented by Prof. Simeon Zhelev, head of the UNWE Business Barometer project and lecturer at the Marketing and Strategic Planning Department, and Prof. Galina Mladenova, member of the project team, lecturer at the same department, and Director of the Scientific Research Marketing Center at UNWE.
The survey was conducted among senior management representatives of 600 companies across all sectors of the Bulgarian economy, including 150 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Data were collected through an online questionnaire. As fieldwork was carried out in January and February, prior to the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran, Prof. Zhelev noted that business expectations would likely differ from the assessments presented now. This context could affect perceptions of the market environment, particularly production costs and demand for goods and services.
According to aggregated data from the UNWE Business Barometer 2026, firms rated their current condition at an average of Good (4.2) on a six-point scale, based on nine indicators. The highest-rated areas (Very Good) are control and accountability, product competitiveness, production and technological equipment, and workforce quality. Rated as Good are activity planning, organizational structure and financial condition. Production cost levels and wage levels were assessed as Fair.
"The main challenges related to production costs stem from rising energy prices in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Prof. Zhelev said.
The Barometer also tracks changes in business sentiment, allowing for an assessment of whether the business environment is improving or deteriorating, according to Prof. Galina Mladenova. This year's edition indicates stagnation in company assessments. The largest share of firms (40.7%) reported that 2025 was similar to 2024, while 37.8% said it had been a better year. The comparison is based on seven indicators, with only two - demand for goods and services, and access to credit and other financial resources - showing a higher share of positive than negative responses. Negative assessments prevail in areas such as market prices, competition, tax burden, social security burden and the ability to hire skilled labour.
In addition to evaluating past performance, the survey examines expectations within Bulgaria's private sector. A total of 39.5% of respondents expect 2026 to be a better year for their business compared to 2025, while 36.2% anticipate no change.
The UNWE Business Barometer also captures business opinions on topical issues, some of which are included for the first time in the 2026 edition.
The balance index based on responses regarding the impact of the euro on company activity stands at +20, indicating that businesses view the introduction of the single currency in Bulgaria as rather positive.
By contrast, the balance index measuring the impact of the continued inability to form a regular government is -37, suggesting that companies see the lack of a stable cabinet as running counter to their interests.
A newly introduced question examines state policy on attracting Bulgarian workers from abroad, as well as foreign labour to the domestic market. The prevailing assessment points to the ineffectiveness of government policy in this area.
Artificial intelligence is another new topic covered in the survey. Fewer than one in three Bulgarian firms report having integrated AI in some form into their core activities.
The survey also outlines the main challenges facing businesses. Leading concerns include administrative and red-tape barriers, followed by difficulties in finding skilled labour, unfair competition, tax burden, social security burden, legislative shortcomings and corruption. Prof. Zhelev noted that corruption ranked among the top three challenges for businesses in the early 2000s.
The UNWE Business Barometer 2026 is the successor to a research project launched in 1999, discontinued after 2013 and revived in 2023. It is available on the University's website. The UNWE Business Barometer was registered as a trademark of the university with the Patent Office in 2025.