Spring 2025 Economic Forecast: EC reduced its growth estimate for Bulgaria’s economy in 2025 to 2.0% per cent

The European Commission’s spring forecast for the EU economy, released on May 19, projected Bulgaria’s economic growth this year at two per cent, significantly lower than the 2.9 per cent figure projected in last year’s autumn forecast.

The Commission also reduced its growth estimate for Bulgaria’s economy in 2026 to 2.1 per cent from three per cent projected in the autumn forecast, released in November.

In its spring forecast, the EC attributed the lower projections to a combination of domestic and external factors. “Increased indirect taxes, higher prices for electricity, utilities and food, and hikes in international tariffs are set to weigh on the economic outlook,” the EC said.

Last year, Bulgaria’s economy grew by 2.8 per cent, exceeding the Commission’s projections (1.9 per cent in the spring forecast, raised to 2.4 per cent in autumn), but falling short of the 3.2 per cent target set in its 2024 Budget Act. Bulgaria’s 2025 Budget envisions economic growth of 2.8 per cent.