Geopolitical and domestic uncertainty continues to exert downward pressure on investment activity in Bulgaria. The proportion of Bulgarian firms investing remains the lowest in the European Union, which is consistent with the previous EIBIS. Nevertheless, Bulgarian firms are showing some optimism regarding business prospects in their sector. These are some of the key messages in EIB Investment Survey 2025 – Bulgaria Overview, published on the European Investment Bank website on 9 December.
The EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) is conducted annually and includes data from approximately 13 000 firms in all EU member states plus a sample from the United States. The survey provides information on firm characteristics and performance, past investment activities and future plans, sources of finance and the financing issues businesses face.
According to the EIBIS 2025 executive summary on Bulgaria, the share of Bulgarian firms investing is consistent with EIBIS 2024 (71% vs 73%) and remains well below the EU average (86%). The balance expecting to increase investment (3%) is the lowest figure recorded over the past five waves of EIBIS and is similar to the EU average (4%). Construction (19%) and manufacturing (13%) firms are most likely to plan investment increases, whereas infrastructure firms (-6%) anticipate a net decrease.
Compared to EIBIS 2024, Bulgarian firms are more optimistic about business prospects in their sector (16% vs 6%) and about access to external finance (18% vs 13%). Attitudes towards the economic climate (-9%) and the political and regulatory climate (-25%) are improving, albeit from very low levels. Compared to EIBIS 2024, there is less optimism regarding access to internal finance (15% vs 18%).
Most investment was for replacement (39%) and capacity expansion (35%). 78% believe they invested about the right amount. Over the next three years, capacity expansion (40%) will be the top priority, higher than the EU average (26%). Most investments were in tangible assets (72%), mainly machinery and equipment (51%).
EIB Vice-President Marek Mora said in a comment that the bank will continue to support Bulgarian enterprises to invest in sustainable projects and to advance in the green and digital transitions in view of strengthening their economic competitiveness and resilience.
The executive summary on Bulgaria further says that firms investing in the country are more likely than EU average to benefit from policy support for their financial investments: namely, the share of Bulgarian firms reporting receiving policy support is 1.5 times higher than the EU average. Additionally, Bulgarian firms are more likely to benefit from grants or subsidies, as well as favourable conditions on bank financing.
Despite the presence of policy support and improved perceptions of external finance availability, Bulgarian firms remain more financially constrained than their EU peers. The share of financially constrained firms in Bulgaria is nearly 2.5 times higher than the EU average, and this is the highest level recorded in the past seven EIBIS survey waves.
The Bulgaria summary also notes that around seven in ten (68%) of Bulgarian firms are involved with international trade (similar to the EU average of 66%), and this share is highest among manufacturers (91%) and large firms (72%). Therefore, Bulgarian firms are sensitive to ongoing geopolitical risks and trade tensions. Bulgarian firms regard recent changes in customs and tariffs (36% of importing/ exporting firms) and disruptions to logistics and transport (30% of all firms) as obstacles to business activities, though these are lesser obstacles when compared to the average EU numbers (48% and 43% respectively).
In terms of innovation, Bulgarian firms are in line with the EU average: 35% are investing in developing or introducing new products, processes or services, compared with 32% of EU firms overall. This is an increase of 9 percentage points since EIBIS 2024 (26%). In contrast, Bulgarian firms are behind the EU average for using multiple advanced digital technologies (35% vs 51%), although this is an increase from EIBIS 2024 (26%). Larger Bulgarian firms (49%) are closer to the EU average.
Around a fifth (22%) of Bulgarian firms make systematic use of generative AI tools to improve processes. This is below the EU average (37%) and particularly low in constructions firms (10%). Among Bulgarian firms that use AI, this is primarily for the purpose of internal processes (63% vs 60% EU average), the summary says.
EIB Chief Economist Debora Revoltella commented that although insecurities cause strain to businesses, they manage to overcome them for the time being. In Bulgaria, Revoltella sees a clear desire for capacity expansion and innovation investment, which is conducive to growth and competitiveness. She added that there is room for improvement in climate action.