Publication of the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD)
Bulgaria’s energy and economic transition is unfolding in an increasingly uncertain global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, growing competition over critical technologies, and the rapid expansion of AI-driven industries. As the European Union strengthens its industrial and climate policies through initiatives such as the Green Deal Industrial Plan, the Net-Zero Industry Act, and the Critical Raw Materials Act, countries that can combine secure low-carbon energy, resilient supply chains, and advanced manufacturing capabilities will be best placed to capture the next wave of investment. For Bulgaria, this creates both a strategic challenge and a unique opportunity. While the country remains vulnerable to imported technologies, infrastructure bottlenecks, and labour shortages, it also possesses significant advantages, including a strong electrical and mechanical equipment industry, a well-developed raw materials processing sector, growing renewable and storage capacity, and an emerging digital ecosystem.
This policy brief examines how Bulgaria can transform these advantages into a long-term strategy for green industrial growth and greater economic resilience. It argues that Bulgaria should move beyond viewing decarbonisation primarily as an environmental obligation and instead use it as a catalyst for industrial modernisation, innovation, and integration into European clean-tech and AI value chains. The analysis highlights the importance of aligning energy, industrial, digital and innovation policies, strengthening domestic R&D and workforce skills, accelerating grid modernisation and digitalisation, and creating a more predictable investment environment. By combining its industrial strengths with a coherent long-term vision, Bulgaria can reduce strategic dependencies, attract new investment, and position itself as a regional hub for low-carbon technologies, digital infrastructure, and sustainable economic growth.
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