The new issue of the Monthly Report on Bulgarian Economy was published. It assesses the short-term dynamics of main economic indicators, with data published up to December 17, 2019.
Gross Domestic Product
In Q3 lower contribution of domestic demand led to deceleration in GDP growth to 3.1% yoy from 3.8% in Q2. Private consumption growth slowed down, in line with lower rise in compensation per employee, while public consumption expanded. Fixed investments went up by 0.9%, as uncertainty among managers increased and business climate assessment lowered in Q3. At the same time, export returned to growth, up by 1.8%, and led to some recovery in import. Nevertheless, net export contribution remained positive for a second quarter in a row. On the supply side, Gross value added (GVA) increased by 3.1% yoy, supported by manufacturing and real estate activities.
In Q3 lower contribution of domestic demand led to deceleration in GDP growth to 3.1% yoy from 3.8% in Q2. Private consumption growth slowed down, in line with lower rise in compensation per employee, while public consumption expanded. Fixed investments went up by 0.9%, as uncertainty among managers increased and business climate assessment lowered in Q3. At the same time, export returned to growth, up by 1.8%, and led to some recovery in import. Nevertheless, net export contribution remained positive for a second quarter in a row. On the supply side, Gross value added (GVA) increased by 3.1% yoy, supported by manufacturing and real estate activities.
Short-term business statistics
In October industrial production and turnover speeded up, while construction output and retail trade decelerated. Growth in the industrial indicators was supported by higher foreign turnover, mainly in manufacture of food products and of base metals, as well as extraction of metal ores. Domestic industrial sales slowed down. The lower increase in construction production along the month reflected deceleration in building construction and decline in civil engineering. Retail trade also witnessed a weaker increase, due to fall in retail sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics and limited growth in automotive fuels and oils. Still, trade with textiles, clothing and footwear and with computer and communication equipment speeded up. In November, the overall business climate indicator increased for the first time since May, while consumer confidence dropped a bit. The improvement resulted from increases in retail trade and construction, while the business climate in industry and services remained broadly unchanged. Managers in all the sectors were optimistic about the business situation of the enterprises in the near future.
Labour market and Productivity
Regarding labour and productivity as production factors, GVA growth in Q3 was determined by productivity. GVA per employed sustained its long-term average since the crisis of 3% yoy. Employment edged up by 0.1%. In contrast to Q2, industrial sector had stronger economic performance than services and agriculture, due to accelerated productivity at 3.9%, supported by industry excluding construction, up by 5.3%. In construction and in some services, such as information and communication and financial and insurance activities productivity registered a decrease, which was more than offset by robust increase in employment. Overall labour demand in the service sector gained momentum, while productivity remained almost unchanged and GVA yoy growth slowed down from a quarter earlier.
The document can be downloaded here