Central Bank Governor: Transition to Euro Successful, Now Outcomes Depend on Quality of Decisions

Photo: Association of Banks in Bulgaria

Bulgaria entered the euro area with a well-capitalised and liquid banking system, a conservative supervisory tradition and a well-developed macroprudential framework, Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) Governor Dimitar Radev says in his publication "The euro is a framework. Stability is a choice", part of the latest quarterly bulletin of the Association of Banks in Bulgaria (ABB). "This is a national asset. It must not be taken for granted or gradually depleted in pursuit of short-term market share," reads the analysis, published on the ABB and BNB websites on  August 21.

"The transition was successful. That is a good start, but only a start. From this point on, outcomes will depend on the quality of decisions and the consistency with which we implement them. The euro is a framework. Stability remains a choice," the BNB Governor says.

Radev notes that the initial assessment seven months after the introduction of the euro is positive: payments continued without disruption, accounts were converted, sufficient cash was made available, and customers were served. "An operation that affected almost every contract, every account and every cash desk in the country was completed without systemic disruption," he adds.

"We have reason to be satisfied, but not complacent. The public will not judge euro area membership solely by the quality of the technical transition. Its assessment will be shaped by everyday experience - through prices, interest rates, access to credit and the security of savings. The conclusion at this stage is clear: the framework is stronger, and with that comes greater responsibility on our part," the BNB Governor says in the publication.

Radev notes that for the BNB, the next stage means active participation in the Eurosystem, precise and accessible explanations of inflation, close monitoring of the domestic credit cycle, and preservation of the preventive nature of capital policy. The central bank will adjust its instruments when the data warrant it - not when short-term pressure makes change more convenient, he adds.

For banks, the standard is prudent lending, strong governance, transparent relations with customers and an adequate capital reserve, he goes on to say. Euro area interest-rate scenarios must be incorporated into loan pricing and the planning of interest-rate risk, liquidity and capital. Data and management systems must identify concentrations and related vulnerabilities before they materialise in arrears, Radev argues.

In his words, this is not a programme for administratively restricting credit. The Bulgarian economy needs financing for productive investment, innovation, energy transformation, infrastructure and higher prosperity. The objective is higher-quality lending - risk-sensitive, underpinned by sustainable incomes and capable of withstanding adverse conditions, Radev says.

"The measure of success is clear. Inflation must sustainably converge towards a level consistent with price stability. Credit must support productive growth without creating excessive indebtedness. Banks must retain their capacity both to absorb shocks and to finance households and businesses," the analysis reads further.