According to flash estimates, Bulgarian GDP growth gathered speed in Q3, up 0.8% yoy (s.a. data). Export of goods and services which increased by 6.7% has been the main growth driver, while imports expanded by 5%. Investment in fixed capital also contributed positively, up by 1.2%. The low consumer confidence, as reported by the latest consumer survey, was reflected in a 1% decrease in individual consumption while collective government expenditures increased by 2.1%.
Shortterm business statistics showed somewhat mixed performance in August, as retail sales growth accelerated further during the month while declines in industrial production and turnover deepened. Construction production index also showed some unfavorable developments, as its main components both deteriorated. The business climate indicator declined as well.
Registered unemployment stepped up by a marginal 0.1 pps compared to 10.8% as of end-September. Annual HICP inflation decreased further to 1.3%. The negative inflation rate led to acceleration in real wage growth to 4.2% yoy in Q3, despite the continuing deceleration in its nominal rate of increase.
Net income and transfers kept their positive contribution to the current account dynamic and together with the sharp improvement in trade balance resulted in positive monthly current account balance at EUR 884.4 mln. Thus the accumulated surplus for the first eight months reached EUR 1.3 bn (3.1% of GDP). Financial account deficit accumulated in Jan-Aug stood at 4.3% of GDP, while foreign direct investments inflow over the period came in at 1.9% of GDP.
General government budget balance came negative at BGN 360.5 mln (0.5% of GDP) in Jan-Sept mainly as a result of increased social spending, government consumption and public investment.
You can read the October Issue here.
* The issue is based on materials and statistical data received up to November 5th, 2013.