On 25 September 2026, the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Bulgaria’s rating at ‘BBB+’ and revised the outlook to positive from stable. The positive outlook reflects the reduction in political uncertainty following the formation of a single-party majority government. This is seen by the Agency as an opportunity for progress on structural reform that could support potential growth, higher levels of wealth and improve governance, building on Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area.
The analysis mentions that these ratings are supported by the benefits from euro accession and EU membership, strong public finance and external balance sheets. These strengths are counterbalanced by overheating risks, partly derived from a pro-cyclical fiscal stance, high inflation and current account deficits and other factors.
Fitch Ratings highlights that Bulgaria’s economic growth has been close to 3% since 2024, despite the various exogenous shocks and subdued EU growth and well above the euro area growth of 1%. The Agency forecasts that GDP growth will moderate to 2.4% by 2028, as they expect its composition to rebalance with slower domestic demand and improved exports performance.
It also pays attention that there are clear signs of macroeconomic imbalances, stemming primarily from strong nominal wage growth over the past three years. This strong income growth, in turn, has driven the surge in household consumption, contributing to the significant widening of the current account deficit, projected at 7.4% of GDP in 2026, significantly above rating peers. Fitch Ratings forecasts annual inflation will average 4.9% in 2026 and remain above the projected 'BBB' medians in 2027-2028.
The factors that could lead to rating upgrade are easing the macroeconomic imbalances and the successful implementation of structural reforms. The deterioration of the macroeconomic imbalances or a sharp correction in economic growth, for example, due to severe loss of competitiveness, as well as a significant increase in general government debt/GDP over the medium term due are factors that could lead to rating downgrade.
You can read the full analysis here.